China manufacturing PMI falls below 50 in October

China's official manufacturing purchasing managers' index fell to 49.3 in October from 50.1 in September, moving below the 50 threshold, according to data released on 31 October.

The National Bureau of Statistics and China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing also reported a non-manufacturing business-activity index of 49.7 and a composite output PMI of 49.7. The figures are seasonally adjusted survey indexes, not measures of GDP growth.

October survey compared with September

Exact primary source checked at 2026-10-31T09:00:53.386Z. Amounts and periods are as labelled below.

What the 50 threshold means

A diffusion index summarises the balance of businesses reporting improvement, no change or deterioration. Readings above 50 indicate expansion relative to the previous month under the survey's convention; readings below 50 indicate contraction. The distance below 50 is not the percentage decline in output.

The manufacturing PMI's fall from 50.1 to 49.3 is therefore a decline of 0.8 index points. It should not be described as a 0.8% fall in manufacturing production. The survey's production and new-orders subindexes provide additional context but are still survey measures.

Do not generalise across every business

The release shows different readings across company sizes and sectors. A lower aggregate does not mean every manufacturer or service business deteriorated. Nor does the composite figure establish the quarterly GDP result, which comes from a different statistical process.

For readers following global demand and supply chains, the useful next step is to compare the survey with later production, trade and orders data on matching periods. This report does not infer an unannounced stimulus measure, a commodity-price move or a guaranteed consequence for company earnings.

Primary source record

National Bureau of Statistics of China and China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing — https://www.stats.gov.cn/sj/zxfbhjd/202610/t20261031_1965718.html; observed 2026-10-31T09:00:53.386Z. This is primary-source checking assisted by AI, not independent human editorial approval.

Additional primary record

National Bureau of Statistics of China — https://www.stats.gov.cn/sj/sjjd/202610/t20261031_1965719.html; checked 2026-10-31T09:07:04.109Z. Separate official statistical interpretation accompanying the dataset; same authority, not independent confirmation.

Recorded source observation: 31 Oct 2026, 14:37:04 IST. This is a source-check timestamp, not a market quote or a new article update.